Home > Politics > thinking 2012: Huckabee? Seriously?

thinking 2012: Huckabee? Seriously?

Here are the most recent numbers from InTrade for the 2012 Republican nomination:

  1. Romney Bid 26.2 Ask 27.9
  2. Palin Bid 18.5 Ask 18.7
  3. Thune Bid 16.7 Ask 20.7
  4. Pawlenty Bid 10.9 Ask 12.5
  5. Gingrich Bid 9.4 Ask 10.4
  6. Daniels Bid 8.5 Ask 9.9
  7. Huckabee Bid 6.7 Ask 7.9

All these quotes can be had by typing the appropriate string (e.g. 2012. REP.NOM.ROMNEY) into a search engine. Navigation to the appropriate aggregate listing at the InTrade site is a bit cumbersome.

First of all, Mitt Romney is looking more like 2012’s version of Bob Dole: inevitable winner of the Republican nomination, inevitable loser of the election to an incumbent Democrat; right now InTrade has the Republican nominee at about a 40% chance of winning the Presidency. Second, I think the Thune and Palin numbers only look like a dead heat; if Palin lasts until the primary season starts in earnest the primary schedule favors her over Thune at least.

Finally, I don’t understand why there’s any buzz surrounding Mike Huckabee; see e.g. this article from GOP12, where his favorable/unfavorable numbers couldn’t be distinguished from Romney’s in a blind test and this Mark Byron article, where Byron picks Palin and Huckabee as favorites.  If I could I’d happily short Huckabee, since he’s two below “the Gingrich line” (any viable candidate must poll as well or better than Newt Gingrich), he has someone to hurdle to reach each of the three major Republican constituencies, he apparently does not have a natural constituency even among the Religious Right, he has to explain how Maurice Clemmons got out of prison, etc.

I may as well come out and say that either Huckabee, as a pastor, had no business leaving his church to become a politician or he was never called to the ministry in the first place. Either way I have no interest in voting for him, sight unseen. The job descriptions for “pastor” and “President” are just too different for anyone to be qualified to do both.

  1. gwern
    August 27, 2010 at 7:40 am
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